Nowcasting Fatal Infections and Modelling District Specific Covid-19 Mortality for Germany



We analyse the temporal and regional structure in mortality rates related to COVID-19 infections. We relate the fatality date of each deceased patient to the corresponding day of registration of the infection, leading to a nowcasting model which allows us to estimate the number of present-day infections that will, at a later date, prove to be fatal. The numbers are broken down to the district level in Germany. Given that death counts generally provide more reliable information on the spread of the disease compared to infection counts, which inevitably depend on testing strategy and capacity, the proposed model and the presented results allow to obtain reliable insight into the current state of the pandemic in Germany


Preprint of the Paper

Schneble, M., De Nicola, G., Kauermann, G., & Berger, U. (2020). Nowcasting fatal COVID-19 infections on a regional level in Germany. arXiv preprint arXiv:2005.07452.

Visualization of the Main Results

Maps

Nowcasted Mortalities

This map shows the (expected) nowcasted fatal infections of the two weeks prior to November 27, 2020with respect to the registration date of a COVID-19 infection. The mortality model includes data referring to registration dates from October 16 - November 26, 2020 and already adjusts for the age and gender specific distribution of the population in each district. Moreover, the model also adjusts for the weekday of the registration date and respects the time trend of fatal infections in the observation period.

Time Trend Nowcast

The following plot shows the currently (November 27, 2020) observed and nowcasted numbers of COVID-19 infections ending fatal by date of registration as COVID-19 infected. 95% confidence bands are shown in grey.